Mortgage Rates Hit 11-Month Low: Is It Time to Move in Western New York?

Mortgage Rates Hit 11-Month Low: Is It Time to Move in Western New York?

Mortgage Rates Hit 11-Month Low: Is It Time to Move in Western New York?

Falling Rates: What Just Happened

As of September 11, 2025, average U.S. mortgage rates fell to their lowest in nearly a year. The 30-year fixed rate dropped to about 6.35%, down from around 6.50% just a week earlier. This drop is largely driven by a softer jobs report, weaker Treasury yields, and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in its upcoming meeting.

For context: earlier in 2025 that same 30-year rate was above 7% in many cases. So this recent drop gives buyers and refinancers some breathing room.

How Today’s Rates Compare to the Past

  • Year-over-Year: A year ago these rates were slightly lower, but through most of 2025, rates had been rising or remaining elevated. This recent drop is important because it moves rates back toward a more affordable zone.
  • Historical Norms: Compared to pre-pandemic years or the mid-2010s, these rates are higher. But compared to some recent peaks and inflation-driven rate hikes, this drop helps erase some of the disadvantage.

Credit Score & How It Affects What You’ll Pay

Your credit score is one of the major levers you control when getting a mortgage. Here’s how it matters:

  • Buyers with higher credit scores typically qualify for lower interest rates. Even a few dozen points can mean thousands of dollars saved over the life of the loan.
  • Poor or average credit can lead to higher rate offers, more required down payment, or stricter underwriting. Lenders see a greater risk, so they price that risk in.
  • In today’s environment, when rates are falling, someone with good credit can take greater advantage by locking in the lower rate now, instead of waiting.

Is It a Good Time to Buy or Refinance?

For Buyers:

Yes—with caveats. If you find a home you love in Western New York, and you’re financially prepared (good down payment, strong credit, reasonable debt load), acting now could be smart. The combination of slightly softer rates plus the seasonal shift (fall being generally less competitive than spring/summer) might give you better negotiating power.

For Sellers:

Lower rates tend to entice more buyers. If your house is priced well, staged well, and in good condition, you could see more interest. But remember, inventory, local market demand, and condition of the home still matter a lot.

For Refinancers:

If your current mortgage rate is significantly higher (say, more than 0.75-1.0% above what you could get now), refinancing may make sense—especially if you plan to stay in the home for several more years. But also watch out for closing costs, fees, and whether you’ll recoup them.

What’s Forecast for Mortgage Rates in 2026

Here’s what experts are projecting:

  • Many forecasts expect mortgage rates to remain in the mid-6% range through late 2025 and into 2026. Some predict a gradual decline toward 6.0% if inflation eases and the economy slows.
  • Others caution that rates might stabilize instead of falling sharply. Because long-term bond yields and inflation expectations play big roles, they could keep rates from dropping too far.

So while there’s hope for somewhat better rates, large drops (to under 5.5% or so) in 2026 are seen by many forecasters as unlikely unless inflation surprises to the downside.

What Great Lakes Real Estate Can Do to Help You Now

  • We stay on top of local mortgage rate movements and lender offerings, so we can help you lock in favorable terms in WNY.
  • We connect buyers to lenders who work with different credit profiles, so you know what options are on the table.
  • We assist with strategizing your budget, down payment, and offer timing to match market conditions here (Buffalo, Erie, Niagara counties).
  • For sellers, we can advise on timing listings to take advantage of rate dips and seasonal buyer behavior.

 

Ready to Take Advantage of Lower Rates?

Whether you’re buying, selling, or refinancing, timing matters — and this drop in mortgage rates could be your opportunity. The team at Great Lakes Real Estate is here to guide you through every step, connect you with trusted lenders, and help you make the smartest move for your future.

Call us today at (716) 754-2550 to start the conversation and lock in your next step while rates are still favorable.