What January Activity Tells Us About the Spring Market (Before the Headlines Catch Up)

As January winds down and winter settles in across Western New York, it might feel like the real estate market is quiet — but beneath the surface, the first signals of 2026’s housing trends are already forming.

Unlike headline jumps in spring and summer, early-year real estate activity is subtle. But seasoned buyers, sellers, and agents know the early shifts in January are often the best predictors of what’s to come when the market really wakes up.

Here’s what the data and early 2026 indicators are telling us — and why paying attention now gives you a real advantage.

Early Buyer Demand Is Returning

One of the clearest signals this January is that buyer interest isn’t entirely asleep. Throughout the month, mortgage purchase applications — a key leading indicator — have risen on both a weekly and year-over-year basis. This suggests more buyers are getting serious and starting the process now rather than waiting for spring to officially begin.

Positive early demand is crucial because purchase applications and pending sales often translate into transactions about 30–90 days later — right in the heart of spring selling season.

Inventory Is Modestly Increasing — But Still Limited

Another early-year theme is a slow but steady rise in listings. Inventory levels are higher than they were at this time last year, and more homes are coming on the market than before.

This shift matters because:

• More inventory gives buyers more options and negotiating power
• It reduces the extreme competitiveness that marked the market in recent seasons

However, the supply is still not abundant — and for most regions, including Western New York, inventory remains below historical norms.

That combination — rising but still constrained supply — tends to support stable pricing and balanced activity rather than the frenetic bidding wars of past boom cycles.

Mortgage Rates Are Helping Shape the Activity Picture

Mortgage rates matter more in early 2026 than they have in several years. After climbing well above historical averages for a long stretch, rates have eased closer to the low-6% range — the lowest level in more than three years according to multiple market trackers.

Lower rates don’t create demand out of thin air, but they encourage buyers who were sidelined by higher costs to reengage. That’s evident in the uptick in mortgage purchase applications, which often lead sales activity later in the season.

Sales and Listings Tell a Balanced Story

National forecasts — including from Realtor.com and Zillow — project modest home price gains and a gradual recovery in overall housing activity throughout 2026. Some predict mid-single-digit price increases and rising transaction volume compared with recent years of constraint.

What we’re seeing in January supports those expectations:

• More homes are coming to market
• Buyers are showing up early
• Pricing is holding rather than declining sharply

This combination points to a steadier and more balanced market — not a boom, not a bust — where prepared buyers and sellers can navigate with confidence.

What This Means for Western New York

Local markets are always their own story, and Western New York is no exception. While early data is national, the trends are consistent with patterns we’re seeing here:

• Buyers have more options than in the recent past
• Homes are spending slightly more time on the market
• Serious buyers are ready early rather than waiting

Because the season’s momentum is already building, early planning matters. Buyers with pre-approvals and clear search criteria are positioned to act quickly when new listings hit. Sellers who use this quieter period to prepare and strategize often enjoy smoother transactions when demand grows.

At Great Lakes Real Estate, we believe that understanding what’s happening now gives you a measurable advantage when the broader market gets fully active.

Closing Thought

January may feel quiet — but it’s not inactive. What’s happening now with inventory, buyer interest, and financing conditions is laying the groundwork for what’s coming next.

If you want clarity about your local market, whether you’re considering buying, selling, or simply planning your 2026 strategy, let’s talk. Early insight beats late reaction — and that’s especially true this year.

Call Great Lakes Real Estate at (716) 754-2550 to get ahead of the spring market before it wakes up.